Modeling peak load electricity in an Algerian liberalized market

Abstract

Peak electricity demand is a major issue in power supply system, it occurs when demand exceeds the available capacity. Continuous growth in peak demand increases the risk of power failures. Peak demand is affected by several parameters such as: the day of the week, seasonal variations, holiday periods, bank holidays and the weather. This study, estimates an equation of daily peak electricity load. The model incorporates deterministic influences such as holidays, and exogenous influences such as the weather (cooling and heating degree). The influence of the weather and seasonality is provided, and is significant even when the autoregressive effects and dynamic specification of the temperature are taken into account. Moreover, Holidays will make peak demand lower. The estimated general model shows a high predictive power.